There’s no doubt about it: the 2018 housing market has seen its ups and downs.
The year started with sky-high home prices, historically low mortgage rates and a definitive upper hand for sellers. In recent months though, home price growth has faltered, rates have risen to their highest point in nearly eight years, and favor has started to shift from seller to buyer.
Will these trends continue? Will housing experience the same wild ride in the new year? Here’s what experts predict will happen in 2019 real estate market:
Mortgage rates will continue rising.
“Despite steady climbing for the past two years, mortgage rates remain lower than they were during most of the recession and below average for the type of strong economic growth we’ve been experiencing. That will change in 2019, as the 30-year, fixed rate mortgage reaches 5.8% — territory not seen since the dark days of 2008 when rates were racing downward in response to the housing crisis.” — Aaron Terrazas, director of economic research for Zillow
Millennials will keep buying homes — despite those rising rates.
"The housing market in 2019 will be characterized by continued rising mortgage rates and surging millennial demand. Rising rates, by making housing less affordable, will likely deter certain potential homebuyers from the market. On the other hand, the largest cohort of millennials will be turning 29 next year, entering peak household formation and home-buying age, and contributing to the increase in first-time buyer demand.” — Odeta Kushi, senior economist for First American
“Millennials will continue to make up the largest segment of buyers next year, accounting for 45% of mortgages, compared to 17% of Boomers, and 37% of Gen Xers. While first-time buyers will struggle next year, older Millennial move-up buyers will have more options in the mid-to upper-tier price point and will make up the majority of Millennials who close in 2019. Looking forward, 2020 is expected to be the peak Millennial home buying year with the largest cohort of millennials turning 30 years old. Millennials are also likely to make up the largest share of home buyers for the next decade as their housing needs adjust over time.” — Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com
This graphic shows the role Millennials will play in the 2019 and 2020 housing markets. COURTESY OF REALTOR.COM
Home buying power will decrease, but that could be a good thing.
“Most homebuyers budget a monthly payment. As rates rise, a fixed monthly payment translates into less borrowing capacity and buying power is down about 10% since the same time last year. As there are less buyers at each price point, the appropriate market response is a slowdown in sales and an easing in price momentum.” — Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist for LendingTree
Overall home sales will drop.
“As we look toward 2019, we are anticipating home sales to decline around 2%. We’re expecting it to be another slightly slower year as buyers continue to wrangle with higher mortgage rates after contending with several years of rapid price growth.” — Ruben Gonzalez, chief economist at Keller Williams
Inventory troubles will ease — not too much, though.
“The wave of first-time home buyer demand will be met by somewhat higher inventory levels than in 2018. However, while the days of multiple offers and bidding wars may be history in some markets where inventory is increasing, inventory will likely still remain tight nationally through 2019." — Kushi
“In the majority of markets, the number of homes being put on the market or newly constructed has increased slightly, while the pace of sales has slowed slightly, which has helped stop the inventory decline. But the inventory increases or slowing price increases necessary for a more widespread sales gain are not forecasted to happen in 2019. While the situation is not getting worse for buyers, it’s also not improving notably in the majority of markets.” — Hale
This graphic shows housing inventory predictions for 2019. COURTESY OF REALTOR.COM
Home price growth will continue to slow.
“Right now, for 2019, we believe home price appreciation will likely slow to near 3%. This is based on the assumption that the recent pattern of increasing inventory levels will be sustained in the upcoming year.” — Gonzalez
Buyers will see less competition, but that might not help first-timers.
“Buyers who are able to stay in the market will find less competition as more buyers are priced out but feel an increased sense of urgency to close before it gets even more expensive. Their largest struggle next year will be reconciling wants, needs and budget versus the heavy competition of 2018. Although the number of homes for sale is increasing, which is an improvement for buyers, the majority of new inventory is focused in the mid- to higher-end price tier, not entry-level.” — Danielle Hale, Realtor.com
National rents will rise, but apartment construction could ease renters’ pains.
“As higher rates limit the number of homes that potential buyers can afford, some would-be buyers will be too financially stretched to buy and will continue renting. As a result, recent (and very slight) drops in rent will reverse and turn positive again. The shift will be muted, however, by continued steady investment in apartment construction, which will prevent rent growth from shooting too far above income growth.” — Terrazas
NYC rent hikes will continue — thanks to Amazon.
“Overall, I think the beginning of 2019 will be relatively flat, with price increases in Q3, Q4 and into 2020. The period between the old 421A and the beginning of affordable New York was a window of time where there wasn’t a tremendous amount of rental development. During that time it was difficult to build rental developments due to the escalating land and construction costs, no tax incentives, etc., creating a shortage of new product. Today, not only have some regulations changed, but the economy is doing well, unemployment rates are down, a lot of jobs are being created here in New York – not only by Amazon but everything that comes along with Amazon and all of the corporations looking to be close proximity to their headquarters. When we see the economy doing well, we can expect rental prices to increase.” — Andrew Barrocas, CEO of MNS
Individual and institutional investors will battle it out.
“Well-funded institutional buyers have tremendous advertising budgets and their spend makes it impossible for the average real estate investor to compete. It takes a serious financial investment to fund a marketing campaign that accurately targets and identifies acquisition opportunities. That alone gives institutional investors an instant advantage. Additionally, interest rates are increasing, which not only impacts buyers who cannot afford to move, but also individual investors looking to borrow money to buy and hold rental properties. Their cost to borrow increases while inventory decreases and competition grows. This type of combination middle-market is one individual investors do not want to see.” — Brian Spitz, founder of Big State Home Buyers
Commercial property managers will hop on the shared space bandwagon — or bring in top amenities to make up for it.
“As co-working continues to be a disruptor in commercial real estate, the largest traditional landlords have opened their own flexible and co-working options to compete, such as Sage Realty's Swivel and Boston Properties' Flex. Landlords who are remaining or returning to the traditional commercial office space are facing increased demand for amenities like sleek lobbies, tech services, etc. To meet these demands and gain a competitive edge, landlords are opening up to fintech/insurtech solutions like replacing security deposits with surety bonds to make tenants lives easier.” — Julien Bonneville, CEO of The Guarantors
Technology will continue to disrupt the industry.
“Technology disruption of the real estate industry driven by Silicon Valley and institutional investors will reach a point where it’ll threaten the traditional real estate industry. Technological innovation is here and rapidly advancing in the real estate industry and preparing for disruption. iBuying, blockchain, artificial intelligence and machine learning are changing the ways buyers, sellers and investors interact with each other and the properties they are interested in.” — Spitz
This graphic shows the top technologies experts predict will be adopted in 2019. COURTESY OF FIRST AMERICAN
The Moral of the Story
All in all, housing is set for a slow-down next year, but as Kapfidze explained, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
“The medium and long-term prospects for housing are good because demographics are going to continue to support demand,” he said. “With a slower price appreciation, incomes have an opportunity to catch up. With slower sales, inventory has an opportunity to normalize. A slowdown in 2019 creates a healthier housing market going forward.”
Article by Aly J. Yale--Contributor for Forbes. View original article here
When you scan the internet for 2019 real estate trends, you'll find a lot of different opinions about what the year will bring. However, one consistent theme is that we will start to see more and more millennials purchase homes. Whether it is because they are aging or feeling more financially stable, there’s no doubt that this generational powerhouse will be a large influence in this year’s real estate space. In fact, some experts are anticipating that 34% of this generation — currently encompassing some 70 million individuals born between the early 80s and mid 90s — will buy a home in the next five years.
At face value, this means that real estate agents and real estate marketers will need to shift their focus to sell homes effectively to a generation that has previously baffled them. Finding their pain points, addressing them and finding exactly what will create that tipping point toward a purchase will keep this group on their toes. Understanding the millennial propensity to seek information from peers and online first, their “recession mindset” and other unique traits will be important for selling real estate.
But one question that hasn’t been explored in the face of this trend is how millennials “growing up” and purchasing homes will affect the rental market. It makes sense that property managers and landlords will start to shift their focus to the next up-and-comers: Gen Z.
Rental Properties And Gen Z Tenants
With the oldest individuals in Gen Z entering their 23rd year in 2019, this generation represents the next wave of renters. If you’re wondering why this is a big deal, trust me — this generation is unlike any we’ve seen before and their demands surrounding rental properties and amenities will be just as different.
If you are a landlord or investment property owner/manager, it’s important to have a baseline understanding of what’s driving these teens and young adults in order to prep for your next group of renters.
They are consuming digital media differently.
We can’t simply apply the rules we’ve finally established for millennials to the following generation. Gen Z is consuming media in a way that’s all their own, using different social media platforms and watching drastically fewer hours of traditional TV. If you are marketing a rental property, you will need to find ways to meet them on their own turf via online video content and not through television advertising. Messages need to be fast, easily digestible, and ready to share with others. This generation likes to interact with their peers and share information and values the human connection in addition to online sources when making housing decisions
They are tech dependent.
These digital natives have never known a world that isn’t completely, immediately connected. They want every aspect of life to be easily accessible through their smartphones. This means as a landlord or investment property owner, you need to take a close look at how you’re interacting with your tenants. They will demand electronic interactions for regular tenant activities like paying rent, filing maintenance requests, basic communication with the landlord and accessing services like purchasing renters insurance.
They are frugal.
A recent Business Insider survey showed that, even though this generation is still very young, some already believe that one of the most important issues that they will have to deal with is the economy and debt. Because they have grown up during a global economic crisis, and in the shadow of the relatively “poor” millennials, they will tend to worry about money. This mindset might make them value affordability over extra square footage or unnecessary amenities.
They want to participate and co-create.
From creating vlogs to launching their own video channels, this generation has had tools at their fingertips from the get-go to be creative in major ways. This experience of participation and creation is part of who they are, and it stands to reason that this will spill out into other portions of their lives as they begin to enter adulthood. If you own a rental complex, consider amenities that bring people together to help create culture, like group art projects, community events and contests.
As real estate trends start to take shape for the coming year, property investors and landlords would do well to take a look at how those trends may affect the rental market. The biggest change on the horizon is the coming-of-age of Gen Z, and understanding their needs can mean the difference between a vacant property and a profitable one in the years to come.